Background information
To ensure the future provision of appropriate care facilities and sufficient capacity, one region planned to undertake major renovations, extensions and new construction of existing hospital buildings. The task involved producing a comprehensive forecast of the future need for inpatient beds today, and for 5, 10 and 15 years ahead.
Challenge
The purpose of Sirona's assignment and delivery in the form of a healthcare needs forecast was to create a basis for decisions on the future dimensioning of the region's hospitals.
Implementation
To analyze the current situation in the region's hospitals, a model was constructed based on care and activity data and on expected demographic trends and historical projections of national care consumption. The aim was to determine an efficient and patient-safe dimensioning of resources.
Based on the evidence base, a review was conducted with operational managers at the clinic level where data was adjusted with the insights available in the business, which created a consensus and gave ownership of the conclusions in the organization.
Outcome
The results of Sirona's analysis provide an important basis for decision-making on the region's future healthcare provision. The forecast indicated that the need for hospital beds in the region will remain relatively constant until 2030, but that there will be a significant shift in diagnostic groups. Average length of stay is projected to decrease, but this is mainly offset by population growth and an increasing proportion of older people in the population.
In total, the future need for beds is estimated to be about 10% lower than the current need. By correctly sizing the beds, the region has more resources available to staff and keep beds open instead.
